October Was the Sixth Driest Since 2001. November Splits the Map in Two.
October closed as the sixth driest since 2001. That ranking alone would be a footnote. What makes it a risk input is how the month ended and what the India Meteorological Department now expects for November: the national deficit narrowed from 48 per cent to 31 per cent in the last three days of October, on rain from a Bay of Bengal cyclone and a western disturbance, and November is forecast to split the country — near-normal rain where the wheat belt needs it, another short month where the south depends on its second monsoon. For lenders and insurers carrying rabi exposure, the two halves of that forecast price very differently.
A dry October, measured where it fell
The October deficits were not evenly spread. Gujarat region recorded a 99 per cent deficit — effectively no rain at all — Madhya Maharashtra 95 per cent, Saurashtra and Kutch 87 per cent, West Madhya Pradesh 82 per cent and East Madhya Pradesh 71 per cent. West Rajasthan was 63 per cent short and East Rajasthan 25 per cent. Then the last three days rewrote two state lines: East Uttar Pradesh moved from a 57 per cent deficit on 28 October to a 4 per cent surplus, and Bihar's deficit narrowed from 55 per cent to 4 per cent. A monthly average that can swing 60 points in 72 hours is not a planning number. The district week is.
| October 2026 rainfall, selected subdivisions | Departure from normal |
|---|---|
| Gujarat region | −99% |
| Madhya Maharashtra | −95% |
| Saurashtra & Kutch | −87% |
| West Madhya Pradesh | −82% |
| East Madhya Pradesh | −71% |
| West Rajasthan | −63% |
| East Rajasthan | −25% |
| Bihar (was −55% on 28 Oct) | −4% |
| East Uttar Pradesh (was −57% on 28 Oct) | +4% |
Source: IMD data for October 2026, reported 31 October 2026. Farmioc.
November: rain for the centre, a short month for the south
For November, IMD Director-General M Mohapatra put all-India rainfall at less than 77 per cent of the long-period average of 29.7 mm. Inside that weak national number sits the split. Normal to above-normal rain is likely over Madhya Pradesh and adjoining parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat, and over East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar — ground that covers a large share of wheat, gram and mustard sowing. West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab are expected to stay below normal, but the IMD's own caveat matters more than the forecast there: those states have almost fully irrigated wheat, so a dry November costs pumping, not acreage. Rajasthan and much of Gujarat sit on the other side of that line — below-normal rain is forecast where several areas lack assured irrigation.
The south has no such cushion. The South Peninsula — Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka — is forecast to receive less than 77 per cent of its November LPA of 118.7 mm. November is not a minor month there; it is the core of the northeast monsoon, the season those subdivisions depend on after a southwest monsoon in which every south peninsula subdivision finished 23 to 46 per cent deficient. A second short monsoon in the same districts is a different exposure from a dry October in an irrigated wheat district, and portfolio maps that score both as "below-normal rainfall" are flattening the one distinction that decides the claim.
The heat did not leave with the monsoon
Rainfall is only half the October record. The all-India average maximum temperature was 32.43 degrees Celsius, the highest for October since 1901, and the mean temperature of 26.63 degrees was the third highest. November is forecast to stay warm: above-normal maximum temperatures across most of the country and above-normal nights over most regions. For a wheat crop being sown into warm soil, that raises establishment and early tillering risk in the rainfed west even where sowing itself proceeds on stored moisture. The strong El Niño behind this pattern is expected to continue until December, weakening only gradually through January to March — which is to say, it covers the whole sowing window and most of the early crop.
What the targets assume
The season is being planned against demanding numbers. The government has set a foodgrain production target of 177.72 million tonnes for 2026-27, including 121 million tonnes of wheat, 12.33 million tonnes of gram, 14.3 million tonnes of mustard and 2.42 million tonnes of barley. Those are targets, not estimates, and November is the month that decides how much of the wheat and mustard area goes in on time. Former Agriculture Commissioner JS Sandhu's point, reported with the forecast, is the operative one: November rainfall will be crucial for normal rabi sowing. The forecast gives the central belt that rain. It withholds it from the two places with the least irrigation cover — the arid west and the northeast-monsoon south.
Reading this into a portfolio
Three practical consequences follow. First, score November exposure by irrigation, not by rainfall departure: a below-normal month in Punjab is a cost event, the same departure in west Rajasthan or a Rayalaseema district is a yield event. Second, treat the south as a two-monsoon failure risk until the northeast monsoon proves otherwise — southwest deficits of 23 to 46 per cent followed by a sub-77 per cent November is the sequence crop insurance pricing should be stress-tested against, district by district. Third, keep the heat in the model: record October maxima and a warm November forecast argue for watching germination and early crop condition, not just sown area, before concluding the season has normalised. Sown hectares will look reassuring by December in most states. Condition is the number that will decide this rabi.
Farmioc's DataStore tracks rainfall departures, sowing pace and crop condition at district level through the season, so a lender or insurer can separate an irrigated dry spell from a rainfed one before either shows up in a claim.